To South Korea, Is Japan Actually A Military Threat? – Defense Politics Asia

Having a trench interest in all things related to the military ( from history, equipment, tactics, doctrine, constitution and thus on ) since elementary school, as a child I sometimes wondered how a modern total war between South Korea and Japan would look like. Growing up in the Korean community, hearing comparisons – and at times derogative remarks and insults – towards Japan wasn ’ thyroxine rare, whether that be in sports, politics, history and so away. In the Internet, it could reach to quite unkindly lengths .
It did however, spark the doubt – is Japan actually a military menace that South Korea should be concerned about today and in the future ?
adenine far as politics and war regarding Korea and Japan are concerned, the history goes back well over a millennium ago. The first of such was during the Three Kingdoms Era in the Korean Peninsula, where one of the Korean kingdoms known as Baekje maintained a military alliance with Japan ( known as Wa at the time ) to fight against its rivals Goguryeo and Silla on two separate occasions .
late on in the earned run average of the Joseon Dynasty during the 1590s, Japan outright invaded the entire peninsula doubly. It very closely succeeded on its first attack, being lone hampered by Ming chinese reinforcements on land and the bright naval victories pulled by the korean admiral Yi Sunshin, who is largely considered a national hero in South Korea today for his efforts.

notably, his most well-known accomplishment is the Battle of Myeongnyang, which efficaciously sealed the destiny of Japan ’ s invasion efforts in the later days of the war .
Fast-forward to the beginning decade of the twentieth hundred, Japan outright colonized Korea, foremost as a protectorate in 1905 and then finally annexing it wholly as character of its conglomerate in 1910. In the years that followed all the manner up to 1945, the japanese military and assorted korean underground groups would fight what can be effective described as a low-intensity conflict in China, though the two sides would besides battle in other countries during World War Two .
now, it is 2019 .
seventy-three years have passed since the goal of the Second World War. It has been besides over fifty years since they have besides formally normalized diplomatic relations .
Although Korea and Japan have not shot at one another out of anger since then, relations between the two have been complicated, to say the least in recent years. This is very a lot due to grievances dating back to the japanese colonial time period during the first half of the twentieth hundred, which does not seem to see any signs of being permanently settled and dealt with anytime soon .
Adding onto this is the territorial dispute between the two countries – namely the Dokdo/Takeshima offspring which has systematically been a irritant into the two countries ’ relations. From the south korean position, there is tied a impression that the islands will come under attack by a sealed ‘ external wedge ’ ( specifically, Japan ) and possibly arsenic far ampere used as a stag period for invading the Korean peninsula itself, despite the unlikelihood of it happening at all .
This has gone to the extent that South Korea conducts discipline exercises around the island twice a year, with the objective being defending it against a conjectural japanese incursion .
Complicating matters further are the holocene disputes in where a confederacy korean destroyer was alleged by Tokyo to have locked its fire-control radar on a japanese naval patrol aircraft on December 20th, 2018, in which both sides failed to settle their differences. Following this is the accusations by Seoul that Japanese patrol aircraft flew overhead at a broken floor above south korean warships on two separate occasions in January 18th and January 22nd respectively, considering them as acts of incitement .
digression from the fact that these incidents saw South Korean-Japan relations take a serious hit, this notably the first time they were affected by an incidental of military nature .
possibly most surprisingly however, is that in relatively recent polls ( albeit long before the above-mentioned incident ) a significant number of Koreans see Japan as a military terror and even see conflict with Japan as a very possible reality somewhere down the future .

Based on Japan ’ s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ’ s ( angstrom well as some others who served in under his administration ) controversial views and intentions regarding the country ’ s defensive stance and its own history during the early twentieth hundred though, it should not come equally much as a surprise that the average Joe and Jane in South Korea would see Japan as a potential military menace .
however, that then raises the doubt – is Japan actually a threat to the Republic of Korea ? And if therefore, can it actually successfully intrude on and conquer it like it about did in the 1590s and turn it into share of some kind of neo-Japanese conglomerate as its imperial predecessor had during 1910~1945 ?
This article will provide and explain four major reasons why this is improbable .

1. South Korea does not even register as a military threat to Japan’s national security. 

It is in truth quite telling when Japan ’ second 2018 White Defense Paper makes no note of the Republic of Korea as being considered anything even remotely close to being a threat to Japan ’ s own national security or a target of interest for Japan ’ s military buildup. One can even access the newspaper ’ second section detailing on the Korean Peninsula, where it clearly considers North Korea to be one of the two legitimate military threats ( the other being the People ’ s Republic of China ) to Japan ’ s national security, not South Korea .
Unsurprisingly, it is North Korea ’ s military capabilities take up the bulk of the subject of that especial section overall, given the obvious missile threat it poses .
This is far backed by the fact that Japan ’ s response to this is the buying of the Aegis Ashore ballistic projectile defense system, which is set to come on-line in 2023, along with plans to deploy two newfangled guided missile destroyers equipped with the Aegis BMD system to bolster its stream fleet of Kongo and Atago-class destroyers. Both transport classes besides are equipped with the Aegis organization as part of Japan ’ s ballistic projectile defense network against North Korea ( and to an extent, China ) .
To get a basic idea of how Japan ’ s BMD shield is supposed to function, refer to this trope below ;
While South Korea does have its own armory of ballistic missiles, namely the Hyunmoo 2B and 2C, with a roll of 500km and 800km respectively, much of these are positioned to strike targets ( particularly missile launch sites ) in North Korea as share of its Kill-Chain scheme. There is no attest to suggest that the ROK has anything planned that ’ mho of the same nature towards Japan and that is assuming such even exists in the inaugural seat .
additionally, procurement of military equipment such as over 100 F-35 stealth fighters ( of which 45 are the STOVL F-35B variant ), refitting the Izumo-class ‘ helicopter destroyers ’ into aircraft carriers and deployment of assets ( primarily anti-air and anti-ship missiles and battle aircraft ) and personnel around Japan are primarily a response to the growing naval and air capabilities of China, american samoa well as its increasingly assertive position regarding not only territorial disputes with Japan but besides the wider Asia-Pacific region as well ( this besides applies to Russia to a lesser degree ) .
This is far proved by the numerous amounts of intrusions Japan has been scrambling against Chinese and Russian aircraft as of recently .

even with these recent decisions, coupled with the development of hypersonic missiles, the creation of a marine brigade and intend skill of furtive air-launched anti-ship cruise missiles such as the LRASM, none of these actually decidedly or even suggestively claim Japan intends on going to a military conflict with South Korea any fourth dimension soon, let alone prepare for one. Japan ’ mho military is besides geared not only countering both North Korea ’ s missiles and China ’ s growing naval power but besides on expanding the state ’ s geopolitical influence across the Asia-Pacific region in an feat to contain the latter. There is a reason why Japan had deployed its naval forces in the South China Sea with the US 7th Fleet while it had besides been investing heavily in the economy of ASEAN states. even Prime Minister Abe himself has intelligibly been populace with this deoxyadenosine monophosphate early as October 2018 .
Considering South Korea does not even fit into any of this, it would make one wonder why anyone would think Japan is considered a military threat. With the north korean projectile threat a well as the constantly growing power of China ’ mho military, it would be ill-thought for Japan to add South Korea into the tilt of security concerns it faces .

2. The Japan Self-Defense Forces simply are not up to the task of actually successfully invading South Korea 

In cattiness of Japan ’ s intentions to strengthen its military position, there are numerous reasons as to why the Japan Self Defense Forces lack the ability to pull off what its predecessors had long ago .
The major emergence is that Japan plainly does not have the means to deploy enough troops and equipment to be able to not only land in Korea in substantial numbers but besides knock the ROK military out of the crusade adenine well. To far break this down, the problems Japan would face are these three reasons down below .
. Inadequate Transportation
The Japan Maritime Self Defense Force ( JMSDF ) does not have an adequate sum of ships to transport the needed total of flat coat troops into korean shores and hold grind. presently, the JMSDF possesses three Osumi-class amphibious transport docks and nine land trade though this has obviously been inadequate, considering Japan was reported to be looking at the possibility of purchasing transport ships to be under the GSDF for moving troops and substantial. flush indeed, this preferably small fleet is nowhere cheeseparing adequate to very attempt an invasion on a scale like to that of over four hundred years ago .
alike, the Japan Air Self Defense Force ( JASDF ) only has a few twelve transport aircraft available for carrying troops, equipment, and supplies across distances that helicopters can not cover. This is barely enough to sustain an invasion on Japan ’ s neighbor to the west while besides operating in hostile airspace against a near-peer adversary whose breeze violence international relations and security network ’ thyroxine all that far off ( if not arguably peer or even superior in some respects ) in overall capability with the JASDF .
While the JASDF and JMSDF may have enough assets to transport the country forces needed to seize small remote islands army for the liberation of rwanda aside from Japan ’ s home islands in a rapid manner, it is inadequate for committing to a full-fledged invasion on Korea .
In a war against the Republic of Korea, much of the JMSDF and JASDF will be operating much closer to and within hostile waters and airspace, where the electric potential of significant material losses will be extremely high, if not even arguably outright unacceptable .
. Lack of required force projection on land.
The Japan Ground Self-Defense Force ( JGSDF ) presently has merely one brigade – the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade, which numbers 2,100 troops and expected to reach 3,000 in the cheeseparing future – that specializes in amphibious operations. This is a major capability that is a vital prerequisite for projecting violence via sea – and one Japan still lacks when it comes down to the numbers necessary to establish a firm grip on confederacy korean soil.

The brigade, for exemplar, is equipped with just a little over fifty AAV-7s to carry troops to the shores and a number of MV-22 Ospreys and CH-47 Chinooks for breeze transportation – so far has little in the way of weapon, armor and anti-tank weapons, all crucial for operations in south korean territory .
Another two units that can be used for projecting force – specifically from the skies – is the first Airborne Brigade and the 12th Air Assault Brigade .
But much like its larger amphibious counterpart, the 1st Airborne Brigade and 12th Air Assault Brigade are relatively small formations ( the 1st Airborne itself consists of no more than 1,900 personnel and the 12th Air Assault numbering 4,000 ) and lack the necessity firepower to stand on their own against heavier and importantly larger ROK forces .
regardless if Japan ’ s airlift capability can ferry the solid brigade or entirely a part of it over south korean skies, it doesn ’ thymine negate the strong likelihood that the unit will not only be badly in danger of being overwhelmed by significantly larger numbers of ROK forces on the grate but besides fabulously unmanageable to supply and support before any reinforcements can link up with them .
even with plans to change a significant number of its current stand forces into rapid-reaction units and turn the overall ground forces into a much more agile fighting administration as mentioned above, the JSDF merely does not have adequate department of transportation capability on its own in both land and ocean to pull off a successful large scale invasion on korean dirt and slugging it out against ROK forces .
additionally, the overall organization and disposition of Japan ’ s ground forces heavily suggests that much of it is not geared for expeditionary war on a scale able conquering whole countries ( let entirely Korea ), as shown by this map below ;
For enough troops to be assembled for such an invasion would require significant preparations in transporting big numbers of troops, supplies, and equipment, equally well as training them for actual battle scenarios against ROK forces. At the same meter, however, concentrating such a large act of not only land but besides air and naval assets for an invasion on the ROK will undoubtedly leave Japan much more vulnerable to its larger neighbors such as China .
At best, Japan ’ s most affirmative chances are if its objectives are quite limited, such as seizing Dokdo/Takeshima isles or even the southernmost island of Jeju, which has a major ROK naval establish .
This latter is considered a vital hub for South Korea ’ mho ambitions to expand its naval presence beyond its own borders in the future. Seizing this island would be a massive reverse on South Korea ’ s geopolitical aspirations, vitamin a well as potentially even outright controlling its access to the wide Pacific Ocean and beyond .
even thus, this besides is highly improbable given the base is besides a site for american english naval vessels to prepare for military drills with their south korean counterparts and possibly other allies besides. additionally, due to the strategic importance the base is to South Korea there is besides the strong hypothesis it will be heavily defended and further reinforced before even it is attacked. Such an try would besides probable be a costly venture not just militarily but besides politically .
. Long-term Manpower Shortage.
The entire military capability of the JSDF in 2018 was reported to be just over 220,000 ( with approximately 138,000 in the GSDF, and roughly 42,000 each in the ASDF and MSDF ). Despite increasing recruitment of women and relax of age restrictions for enlistment, the JSDF is likely to see its manpower decay in the foreseeable future as the state ’ s population continues to senesce and shrink, affecting the pool of recruitable candidates significantly .
To make matters more unmanageable, roughly 37 % of the JSDF ’ sulfur personnel are reported to be aged over 40 and recruitment targets quotas have never been reached since 2014. If things weren ’ triiodothyronine hard enough already, rival with the private sector in the midst of a relatively stable economy has besides made it more difficult to recruit eligible men and women into the power .
Below are two graphs that show good how much of a contrast the JSDF ’ randomness age demographics are to say, its US counterpart and how hard it has been affected by the population decline and contest with the individual sector ;


Although Japan intends to make efforts in reasonably minimizing the understaffing it has by increasing efforts on developing its capabilities on artificial intelligence, drones, and robots, the shortages in work force will still be felt in the years to come. After all, at the end of the day, even with automation there will silent be a demand for humans to keep warships, aircraft, armored fight vehicles and artillery maintained in working rate at sufficient levels, adenine well as to keep them staffed at adequate levels to ensure functional readiness rates are not compromised .
tied if Japan somehow miraculously manages to somehow tame South Korea and successfully annexes the area like it did in the past, it would however need a significant measure of troops and equipment committed to just occupying it .
At its current force, this is simply not feasible. Another major issue facing Japan in this improbable scenario would besides be that it ’ five hundred besides have to contend with sharing a physical margin with North Korea – a rather undesirable situation that would undoubtedly stretch its forces – particularly those on country – quite thin .

3. A Massive ‘Hostage’ Problem 

possibly what should be most concerning to Japan is that are deoxyadenosine monophosphate many as about 60,000 japanese residing in Korea itself at any given clock. Should an all-out or even limited conflict between the two nations occur, the safety of those people can not be guaranteed. Although Japan reportedly was developing plans on how to evacuate its citizens in the consequence of a war breaking out in the peninsula, this more than probable was in response to the scenario of hostilities between South Korea and North Korea resuming. not one where South Korea and Japan would be fighting one another .
In the event of attempting an invasion as some in South Korea may fear, Japan would inescapably put the lives of its own citizens in the country at dangerous risk of retaliation. further fuel this is the detectable anti-Japanese opinion within the country, where protests are not unheard of and in more bizarre cases, local governments proposing listing japanese companies as war criminals and have stickers labeling them as such on any of their products used in their areas ( while such absurd plans were not in full welcomed, the fact they were flush planned for by the state ’ south leaders is discerning ) .
Worse, the government of the Republic of Korea in the past has shown to be more than able of committing appalling atrocities in wartime and for political reasons, some that would not seem all besides different to what Japan had done in its destructive way of imperialism ahead. such examples are the Bodo League Massacre where at least 100,000 civilians suspected of being communists were executed, a well as the slaughter of pro-democratic protestors in Gwangju and the rape of tens of thousands of women during the Vietnam War .
even a late as 2016, the country ’ s armed forces were reported to be planning to deploy thousands of troops ( including especial operations forces ) and armor vehicles against its own populace during the far-flung protests against then-President Park Geunhye. Had the protests gone the ill-timed way and the design was indeed executed, there is fiddling doubt as to what the consequence probably would have been .
Should a conflict between Korea and Japan happen, there is very small that the JSDF can truly do for what is basically tens of thousands of hostages at the mercifulness of the host state they ’ ra rest in. Although one can argue that Japan could use this for propaganda purposes to boost domestic back and morale, at the lapp time, this besides has the potential to politically backfire vastly .
While the present politics of South Korea surely is not the lapp as its predecessors of previous decades, war between the two neighbors surely can very likely translate anti-Japanese sentiment in Korea into something multitudes worse .

4. The United States will not just sit by idly

This is arguably the biggest reason why Japan is simply improbable at all to ever think about trying to repeat another undertake on Korea .
Both South Korea and Japan are vitally crucial allies of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region and have been so since the 1950s. Both are besides heavily dependent on the presence of US forces in their dirty, given the projectile menace posed by North Korea and an increasingly assertive China whose geopolitical interests and growing military forte don ’ t precisely align eye-to-eye with the japanese and south Koreans .
The last thing the United States would ever want – and likely prevent at all costs – is a war crusade between its two most strategically significant allies in Asia. An attack by Japan on attacking South Korea or frailty versa, would by extent besides bring US forces in both countries in very veridical danger of being caught in the crossfire and that is something the US plainly won ’ t let slide so easily. even more indeed, there ’ s up to a full of approximately over 60,000 united states military personnel in the two countries, including several major bases .

One should besides consider that both the south korean and japanese armed forces are powerfully integrated to operate with their u counterparts as well. It is besides not rare to hear of joint educate exercises occurring. These exercises are not small by any measurement ; those such as Keen Sword and Foal Eagle typically involve at the least tens of thousands of troops each on bring, tune, and sea .
And while rarely heard of or given attention to, the United States besides holds trilateral military exercises with South Korea and Japan, promote showing its interest in ensuring the two neighbors work together against a common terror careless of whatever historical animosities they have .
As such, the scale of such exercises should give a beneficial idea as to fair how much of an authoritative role the United States plays in the home security of the two East asian neighbors, making it further unlikely for either Japan or South Korea to engage in an all-out war against each early, let entirely even an isolated incident of shooting out of anger .
The only countries that would actually benefit from such a scenario would be China and North Korea, for it is in their pastime to see relations between South Korea and Japan to deteriorate and thus, weaken US determine in East Asia ( and by extension may besides affect Southeast Asia indirectly ). In essence, one could argue that the presence of US troops within Japan and Korea is an absolute necessity to prevent flush the slightest possibility of conflict between the latter two nations occurring .

Conclusion 

ultimately, it is rather absurd to believe Japan would always pose an actual credible military menace to South Korea or has any intention of being so. Any absurd trace that it does – subtle or direct – is little more than paranoia at best. At worst, it would be fear-mongering for domestic consumption purposes, which surely likely is the case with the current south korean and japanese administration .
As explained above, Japan ’ s military forces even in the awaken of holocene developments to its overall capabilities are not geared towards South Korea, nor does the country even consider its neighbor to be of a lot worth the cost of ( if at all ) going to war against.

The fact that South Korea besides does not measure as an actual state of strategic interest for Japan ’ s overall national security in its defense white paper, followed by the overall defense pose of the JSDF and the argue behind its procurement and development of respective equipment far backs this. even if that isn ’ t the character, the Republic of Korea ’ second military is more than capable enough to hold its own against an undertake japanese invasion. One can not stress adequate that Korea today international relations and security network ’ t the lapp vulnerable nation as it was in the die days of the Joseon Dynasty in the late nineteenth hundred and the dawn of the twentieth century or in the 1590s .
Japan ’ mho and South Korea ’ s confederation with the United States, american samoa good as their integration with the US military besides is another major reason that shouldn ’ t be overlooked or taken lightly .
ultimately, a war between the two nations is in neither ’ mho pastime. There should not be any perceive belief that it will happen and even if that likelihood increases, both countries need to realize that there is identical little to gain from deteriorating relations .

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Category : Maritime