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$200,000 sales price for this truck? The battery alone will be over $250,000 if Tesla pricing of batteries for the cars is any indication.
I agree 100%, there will not be a low cost tesla for 25 K. The mass produced, low cost tesla will be the robotaxi and they will all be owned by tesla generating at least 30 k a year in transportation services. They will also have low cost LFP batteries that do not degrade with 100% charging as the cars will be charging several times per day and on the road 24 hours. These cars will be built to travel at least a million miles and each will generate thousands of dollars of income for tesla and destroy uber, lyft, car rental companies as well as buses.
I'll believe when I see it.
Sooo, the Cyber truck will hook up to the mega-charger. Does this imply Cyber truck will have the Plaid motors as well as the 1000v battery pack too?
I think lower cost per mile than rail was implied with no driver.
Tesla or Elon Musk
Sorry, but I just can’t hear you. Your voice is really not made for broadcasting and you’re sitting so far away from the microphone it really is unintelligible. Would’ve love to hear your information but it was just not possible.
Figure the Semi Tractor weight this way: in 2019 a Model S had an 85kWh battery weighing 1,200 lbs. That gives you about 15 lbs per kWh. Assume the 500 mile Tractor has a 1,000 kWh battery. That comes out to a weight of 15,000 lbs. lets say the rest of the tractor weighs 5,000 lbs. That equals 20,000 total tractor weight. Diesel Tractors weigh up to 25,000 lbs. The majority of that is the Diesel Engine, Transmission, Driveshaft, Differentials, drum brakes, fuel tanks, etc. None of which the Tesla semi has.
Just a thought, and in my mind the new vehicle platform well initially have two vehicles unveiled. One will be the New compact design at 1/2 the cost of existing models.
And on the same new platform,
The dedicated Robotaxi which will probably be first used in a closed loop environment ,Think boring company. In my mind the dedicated Robotaxi will not be sold to the public and will be produced in limited numbers initially . That being said, The new compact design will be produced in massive numbers initially in China for worldwide distribution. The new vehicle platform will have many potential use cases ,allowing Tesla To produce vehicles in multiple vehicle categories. 🤔IMO
Semis make up 1% of the vehicles on the roads and 20% of the emissions pollution. Let that sink-in.
some needs to explain this complicated innovation to buffet so he can evaluate his freight train, GM, banking, insurance, BYD, Coke holdings
Can't Wait For More #Tesla News
Absolutely incredible product the Tesla Semi, but just okay event. The stock drop this morning looked like a big dump into very low volume with anyone else interested mostly holding back until later. And great news stock drop? So common I expect it.
What I think the event completely missed was making the Tesla semi seem real. They should've driven one or all three into the event. The video was okay but Nickola could've put on an event like this. Clearly someone thought it through, the tie-in to the Cybertruck was a brilliant move, but buried in an ill-practiced event. And we all thought that Musk had Steve Jobs learned back to front.
By not connecting this event to an actual working Tesla Semi they really missed an incredible opportunity. Someone pointed out that this is the first new vehicle delivery event since the Model Y, early 2020.
The 500 mile (800km) route appeared to have been on the 101 freeway (which notably follows the San Andreas Fault) instead of the standard trucker route of I-5 through the Central Valley and over the Tejon (te-HON) Pass 4144' (1263m) . I don't think they took this route to avoid the high pass, Donner Pass which is shown in videos at the event (snow) is 7,056' (2,151m). So I don't think they were trying to avoid that grade. (Trucks slow way down, overheat, brakes smoke. It and the Cajon (ca-HON) Pass are the semi truck killers in California.) There are almost always traffic jams, even late into the night, on the Tejon Pass (and the Cajon) so I think that's why Tesla avoided that route. (There are also special
mandatorytruck lanes that are only as fast as the slowest truck. Caveat: I've driven all these routes many many times, the video was so speeded up I couldn't recognize anything specific. (The truck seemed to have a speed of 56-7mph (90 kph) just under normal for a large truck.) These high passes in my Model Y? Absolutely no problem at all, and I regen on the way back down. (Coming down from Big Bear 7000' (2130m) to the Supercharger at 1000' (304m) I regen about 12 – 15 miles of range. )Outstanding THANK YOU
The pieces of the puzzle quickly rearranging themselves before our eyes… with your expert mind guiding us. Magnificent picture, indeed! SoCalFreddy
Your kWh numbers are off. I figure early Model 3 LR my wife has is 75 kWh . New ones are 82 kWh . The vast majority of the Model 3's sold in the US are LRs. So 17 x 82 kWh is 1394 kWh , a little much. Try 12 Model 3 batteries, 12 x 82 kWh is 892 kWh . Right on the money. Maybe 6-7 for the 300 Mile version. My guess is each semi will on average use the batteries of 8-10 cars. Not near as bad as 17 cars.
The Cybertruck will have a lot larger battery pack then 100 kWh . The smaller Model X only goes ~300 Miles on 100 kWh battery. The GMC Hummer EV (Comparable size) has a 246.8/212.7 kWh (total/usable) battery. So I figure the 500 mile Cybertruck has at least a 200 kWh battery.
There are still some charging mysteries. Like how a Cybertruck can charge on either a 1000v V4 supercharger or a 500 V3 supercharger. The Porsche Taycan has the same problem. It uses a 60 kW converter when charging on 500v superchargers, It sucks!!
Agree. Robotaxis are the future. It just won't make any sense for people to own a car and let it sit most of the time. Sure, rich folks will have sports cars and collectible classics for fun and investment, but for everyday transport, you won't be able to beat the convenience of having a self driving car show up on demand. And for people that want to have fun and show off, they will be able to summon luxury limos and sports cars and trucks of their choice too, whenever they want. Few people can afford to own a vehicle for every purpose. Not needing garages or parking spaces on your property will allow higher density housing, meaning more people will be able to live close to work, further reducing traffic.
These trucks are a really big deal. I'm excited to see these trucks in the wild. The use case for these trucks is phenomenal. It may take a while for the charging infrastructure to get there, but it will get there.
It thought it's a dildo the whole time.
I’m sure the White House and the mainstream media will ignore this delivery event, as if the Tesla Semi never existed 😂
The battery chemistries will change in the next couple of years to higher energy density batteries. Changes will be ongoing constantly upgrading. I think Tesla will be leading the way.
I think Tesla will use sliding scale pricing (average national per-capita income/savings based) for Robotaxi to maximize deliveries in various global markets. They are already starting to do this with Models 3 and Y less expensive in China than in the USA.
Yep. I have been telling people for several years now that the tabless design of the 4680 will mean significantly faster charging times, and here we get the first exciting hint of that from Tesla. I have two Cybertrucks on order. My estimate was the same, six to ten minutes for a charge on the Cybertruck at a Megacharger. Also, faster charging ability is an indication of faster discharge ability too, acceleration for the quad motor Cybertruck should be insane.
I don't usually predict stock prices, but I don't see how Tesla doesn't 3x by two years from now, minimum.
I definitely need the semi truck to finally beat my neighbour in the
who has the bigger onecompetition.The Cybertruck is going to be a 200 kWh battery pack pickup truck. Musk had previously stated that they didn't want to go above 100 kWh for their passenger cars due to weight and cost, but could go over that for other applications.
I believe you are wrong about the next car being a robotaxi. Regulatory hurtles and political ones are likely to delay robotaxis for 3-5 years. Tesla can't afford to concede the lower end of the car market to the Chinese and others that far into the future. Other car manufacturers will use their influence to delay Tesla with the help of a skeptical public. Some of the rumored changes like guide by wire would allow rapid conversion from a steering wheel to one without when approval is finally given.
One thing that I´m worried about is the fact that it takes lots of energy to fully charge the semi truck (even if it´s fast). It´s expected it takes about the same energy as powering a small city.
How sustainable is this actually?
It's way too early for robotaxi production, regulatory approval is many years away. They need to sell a low cost vehicle to have any chance of meeting sales targets in 2025+
Tesla should concentrate there effort into a Delivery Van or RV unit such as the Rivian Amazon delivery van! Demand for these vehicles is very high!
7:55) Lee, your Dad reserved a Cybertruck? My Dad too! Though, Doc is my ‘sort of’ Dad assembling me from Different Parts in a (non-union) laboratory.
Lee.
Re the charging.
In the presentation video , at
48:35 they specifically said "this I coming to our superchargers next year".
The question is, do they mean the V4 charging, or the (new?) cable cooling system?
.
The latter would arguably be more beneficial since it would help "flatten the curve" on chargers throttled by the "hot handle" problem.
.
I would also note that if it's just for the V4, that might limit the charging options of the CT.
People sure are trusting. These trucks have not had a single day of real-world testing and Tesla centric channels are declaring total victory. Even with the video provided by Tesla, it's still only the company's word that the truck can carry a large payload (payload meaning the actual weight of goods that can be charged for) and travel 500 miles on a single charge. So many ways the video could be manipulated…. perhaps the truck in the test video has extra battery as part of the 82,000 pounds, which would greatly decrease the amount of actual payload. The fact that this test was announced mere days before the first delivery is odd. When it comes to Musk and Tesla, so many people seem to lack any level of rational objectivity. It's kind of disturbing.
This year Tesla will make more or less 450k of the 15mio total sold cars in the us.
But when they make 35k Trucks they crush the competition because only 270k class 8 trucks are sold annually.
You wrong 19 seconds into your video. It’s not a semi truck with a 80’000 lbs load! That’s the weight of the semi plus trailer plus load. Load could be half that depending on weight of the trailer and semi
thousand-volt powertrain was big news to me
Elon -'Current efficiency is 1.7kWh/mile, but there is a clear path to 1.6, possibly 1.5'
Put a hatchback on the 3, a structural batt pack and front/back castings and I'll buy it right now! Please tell Elon.
BTW, the cooling of the supercharger wires means you can use finger sized wires instead of those the size of your wrist. (So you don't melt the wires by overheating).
Elon talking nonsense about liquid cooled cables proves that the L4 charger and cybertruck are still just dreams. Cables get cracked, stretched and damaged. and vandalized. No practical way for them to be liquid cooled on public chargers. When he talks about nonsensicle stuff like this, you know its just like the roadster – vaporware. The reason they are doing the semi is to use up batteries. Cybertruck in texas isn't ready – over a year late. And Berlin still can't product MY or M2 in volume – also over a year late. They need to use up all the batteries they committed to take from Panasonic and CATL. Semi and utility scale fixed storage aren't profitable, they are just to use up the batteries. Someone will produce a M2 in size and shape of MiniCooper or KiaSoul with small size for traffic and tall headroom for city traffic where aerodynamics don't matter. It will likely be BYD. The Tesla Dream is over.
Superb analysis Lee.
Do you think that the acceleration that the semi is capable of will make a significant difference to a journey time and compensate somewhat for the time the vehicle takes to charge?
Best video yet. There is risk to making predictions like this, but your analysis makes sense.
Your commentaries are carefully reasoned and based on real data. I like the fact that you are willing to risk being wrong in the interest of peeling the onion of the underlying story and most of the time you get it right. More importantly, your analyses are the perfect antidote to the gusher of FUD we always get from Tesla's jealous detractors when there is any sign of a pause in Tesla's "meteoric" rise. (I always thought meteors fell…oh well) Keep up the good work!
Tesla Semi combined with a trailer converted into a house.
One thing nobody is talking about (yet) is that 🤩THIS 1MW POWER WILL KILL CCS! 🤩
CCS can not compete with the Tesla connector and V4 chargers, this is the new gold🏅 standard! Use it or you will NOT sell any cars! 🤩🤘💪
It can't be more efficient then a train by itself. It may be on par (from a financial standpoint) when using it in convoy and with FSD without driver.
I didn't understand didnt they say superchargers would be able to put out the 1000 w?
I think it’s obvious there won’t be a $25K (in todays money) compact consumer car from Tesla either for a long time or maybe never. Think about all the battery capacity they need for Semi/Cybertruck/3 and Y etc – there just isn’t the capacity out there to build a huge volume smaller car yet.
Maybe one day but as Lee says a Robotaxi makes way more sense. Tesla are trying to get 20% of the market and concentrating on the biggest emission producing vehicles (which also happen to be the highest margin!) makes sense.
The one caveat to that is they may well do a modified model 3 SUV version to fill in the $35-$40K area as again this is a huge market but may not have the capacity to do it.
What's the competition got currently and what do they have in the pipeline?
The MYLR is an excellent road trip vehicle, even with charging stops.
It sounds like the CT is going to be the best road trip vehicle ever made.
So they will last much longer, cheaper to operate, and Tesla has to build all the infrastructure for charging along the way. At this point, why sell them at all and not sell them shipping as a service? Later, replace the driver with FSD + remote driving/takeover with Starlink? Perhaps FSD can be used for the freeway only, and a human takes over for the last stretch. It's the same as the robotaxi play, but makes even more sense since the customers are corporations, and having a remote driver on stand by is more economically viable.
Please stop with the robo taxi talk. It will not get regulatory approval for many years
25k will be the full price of FSD, hence the $25k robotaxi vehicle