120 years of data. Stitched together from U.S. Census Bureau data. With NCHS data for the infant mortality rate since I wanted each year to start with total amount of children born in a cohort, so that the lowest bar actually represents all births, and the drop represents all infant mortality.
The U.S. Census Bureau data was gathered through multiple sources depending on time and type of data.
Song: Steffen Daum – Goodbye My Dear:
Infant mortality rate:
1. US National Vital Statistics System (note the much higher mortality for the black population, I used the average for the other races). The mortality rate for other categories than white and black where assumed to follow the average. This is not a fully reasonable assumption. But the effect should be too small to be visible in this chart.
Population total:
1. 1900-1932 National Intercensal Tables:
2. 1933-2020 U.S. Census Bureau July 1st data, provided by Human Mortality Database:
Race data:
1. National Intercensal Datasets: 1980-1990: (adjusted Hispanic due to using different definition of Hispanic than the other datasets)
2. 1990-2000 Bridged-Race Population Estimates 1990-2020 – Provided by CDC
3. National Intercensal Datasets: 2000-2010:
4. National Population by Characteristics: 2010-2019:
Notes:
1. The data has been interpolated between census years before 1990.
2. Race is self identified.
3. Hispanic is exclusive of other categories.
4. A 5th-degree polynomial fit has been applied at a cohort level after 1960 as smoothening.
5. It was not possible to answer with multiple races before the 2000 census. Yet I’ve interpolated the race data linearly from the 1990 census, therefore it shows up slowly over the decade.
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Hmm
Thx 4 showing us such informative work
And they say the great replacement is a conspiracy theory
Bob loves your work. That's the highest compliment one could receive!
wow, didnt notice this, lesser than half of americans are white
Great video!
I was here before the comment section got spicy.
Thank you for posting this. Some interesting observations: #1. The baby boomers are right on the edge of the "death cliff" of the 70's bracket – meaning – the demographic shift is going to get even more acute over the next 10 years. #2. It seems minorities especially hispanics expanding in not just birth rate but also in the middle of the pyramid. #3. I was under the the impression before this video it was mainly high minority birth rate but really its more so adult migration and shrinking white birth rate.
#4 Bonus: Hopefully we become a post-racial society at least in aspiration again like we used to be and we put the race conflict behind us. America's future, and by extension humanity's future, is dependent on this. It appears this will be decided by the degree hispanics in particular begin identifying as white or non ethnic. No one can predict the future. 😉
Amazing work! Thank you.
Completely reworked the code.
The infant mortality was especially interesting to follow here. I broke the data up by race:
But I can't really spot the difference by eye even though the black population has had about twice the infant mortality.